Yes, Daytona.
The news just got worse.
The National Weather Service in Atlanta has upgraded its severe weather outlook for the Daytona region to include a small chance of seeing flooding.
According to weather service meteorologist Brian Joyce, the “small chance” of seeing some elevated flooding in the next 24 hours was due to the remnants of Hurricane Dorian, which is located over the southeastern part of the country.
Although there’s no immediate threat of flooding in Daytona, the outlook for the area is still something to worry about.
Why Is Flooding On The Rise In The South?
According to the weather service, 2018 was the fourth year in a row that the agency has issued a flood warning for the Daytona region. That’s more than 72% of the years since the agency began issuing flood warnings for the area. Between 2004 and 2018, there were 24 flood warnings and/or advisories issued for the region.
In 2018, there were eight floods that were caused by either heavy rainfall or thunderstorms. Four of those floods were a result of Nor’easter-type storms that dropped a tremendous amount of rain on the region.
In 2019, flooding was worse than it’s ever been. There were 26 flood warnings and/or advisories issued for the region, and at least 15 of those floods were caused by either heavy rainfall or thunderstorms. That’s more than 60% of the years measured since 2004.
What Is The Increased Risk Of Flooding This Year In The South?
Dorian was one of 10 named storms that formed in the north Atlantic in the early weeks of September. It’s estimated that the storm reached a peak wind speed of 130 mph as it passed over Ireland and the United Kingdom.
While passing over the British Isles, the storm dropped a tremendous amount of rain. According to the weather service, between 8.9 inches and 10.7 inches of rain was measured in the region. Some areas reportedly received as much as 14.8 inches of rain, which was more than enough to cause significant flooding.
When Hurricane Dorian finally made its way to Florida, it brought with it the wet and wild weather that we have all come to expect from a tropical cyclone. Some areas of the state were hit especially hard, and it wasn’t just the rain that fell. During Hurricane Dorian, Florida was also threatened by thunderstorms and tornadoes, which injured dozens and devastated parts of the state. Overall, the storm claimed at least 75 lives and caused billions of dollars in damage.
Will The Increased Risk Of Flooding In The South Be Impacted By The Cold Weather?
The weather service meteorologist, Joyce, said that while 2019 saw a spike in flooding, it wasn’t all bad news. Joyce pointed to the fact that the season was unusually dry until mid-October, when rainfall finally arrived. According to weather service data, only four of the 26 flood warnings and/or advisories that were issued in 2019 were actually prompted by flooding. The other 22 warnings and/or advisories were a result of dry weather conditions that led to drought conditions. This trend is expected to continue in 2020 as well.
Joyce said that while there’s no immediate threat of widespread flooding in the region, it’s still something to monitor because of the increased risk that it brings. He also emphasized that all weather conditions must be taken into consideration when creating a flood watch or warning. Because of the risk of flooding that it brings, the weather service will continue to monitor the southeastern U.S. for any signs of elevated water levels.
Severe Winter Weather
The winter of 2019 was one of the worst on record in the United States. The country as a whole saw more than 200 severe weather events, which the Weather Service defines as “occurring at least 95% of the time” in a given area. The severe winter weather was a direct result of the Arctic blast that descended on the country, which was caused by unusually warm temperatures in the northern hemisphere.
Overall, the U.S. saw an increase of more than 15% in severe winter weather events between 2018 and 2019, according to the weather service. That’s the largest single-season increase since records have been kept. In 2019 alone, there were more than 70 such events, the majority of which were linked to the Arctic blast.
Some examples of the extreme winter weather that the United States experienced in 2019 include:
- 300-mile-per-hour wind gusts in Iowa that were caused by a rare polar vortex that descended on the U.S.
- Record-breaking snowfall in Colorado that reached a maximum depth of 24 inches—more than twice the average yearly snowfall.
- A tornado that touched down in Iowa and killed two people.
- 100-mile-per-hour wind gusts in Arizona that were caused by a rare weather phenomenon called a “supercell thunderstorm.”
- Record-breaking cold in the eastern U.S. that was caused by a polar vortex that blocked the escape of heat from the Arctic.
- Tropical cyclone winds that reached 58 mph in Florida, which is the most ever recorded in the state.
- Freezing rain, ice pellets, and snow that fell in Texas for an entire month.
- Hundreds of thousands of car accidents that were caused by icy road conditions in the U.S.
- More than 200 tornadoes that were spawned by the “polar vortex” in the southern U.S.
- One of the most intense wildfires in California history that was caused by the El Niño climate phenomenon.
The “Polar Vortex” And The “Arctic Blast”
Although the odds of seeing widespread flooding this year in the Daytona region are low, it’s still something to monitor. That’s because the National Weather Service in Atlanta has upgraded its outlook for the area to include a small chance of seeing flooding. The reason behind the upgraded warning is the remnants of Hurricane Dorian, which is slowly making its way to the Northeast.
More than a week after Hurricane Dorian tore across the Bahamas and the eastern part of the U.S. coast, the weather service has begun to see some effects of the unprecedented storm. On Tuesday, forecasters at the National Weather Service in Atlanta noted that Hurricane Dorian had weakened somewhat as it neared the U.S. coast. As a result, the threat of life-threatening floods and mudslides is no longer present. However, the weather service still warned that scattered heavy rainfall and thunderstorms were likely for parts of the Southeast U.S.
The “polar vortex” that descended on the country during the winter of 2019 was also a result of the melting ice cap in the north, which was caused by unusually warm temperatures.
Although the impact of the vortex and the arctic blast that ensued was undoubtedly severe, the U.S. weather service is already beginning to see the effects of the polar vortex in its records. According to the agency’s senior forecaster, Steve Johnson, the temperature in the region dropped as much as 14 degrees from the average winter temperature. That’s almost certainly the result of the unusually warm air that was pumped in from the north. The polar vortex not only brought with it unusual cold, but it also held back the sun, which normally makes its way down into the country.
While the direct effects of the polar vortex may have passed, the impact of the “Arctic blast” and the cold that it brought will likely be felt for years. That’s because the country is still recovering from the effects of the polar vortex.
The U.S. weather service has noted that parts of the South and Midwest experienced record-breaking cold temperatures in the early months of 2019. According to the agency, some cities saw their lowest temperatures in decades, with daily records falling to an extent that many residents likely won’t see again during the year. That kind of weather directly impacts the country’s already-frigid winters, which is bad news for people who live in the region. While the country’s climate is changing, it’s still highly unusual to see records broken on a daily basis in January in the southern part of the country. The impacts of the polar vortex were so great that experts at theweather service have warned that the country is at risk of record-breaking cold temperatures in the future.